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2007 Deer Harvest Down as Expected
By Dr. N. Charles Bolgiano
According to the Pa. Game Commission, the 2007 estimated deer harvest
was 323,070 deer, down 11 percent from 2006. Of that number 109,200
were antlered deer (down 19 percent) and 213,870 were antlerless
(down 5 percent).
While the PGC will blame poor weather during the first day of the
gun season as the primary reason for the reduced deer kill, most
hunters attribute it to fewer deer.
What do all the PGC deer harvest numbers mean? Thats a good
question without a good answer. A little historical prospective
might be helpful...
In the late 1990s during an early skirmish in the current Deer
Wars, we chose to use only PGC data to challenge deer management
decisions. How could the PGC argue with their own numbers? It was
not long before the flow of data stopped or became useless due to
the larger WMUs, leaving only the annual harvest numbers to evaluate
the performance of the new deer management team.
Although the PGC continues to discuss antlered and antlerless harvests
as if all antlerless deer are females, boys and girls are definitely
different. Thus, any valid analysis should compare only male and
female deer.
For the average Pa. hunter, the harvest numbers are hard to accept
given the low number of deer sightings, shots heard, and the FLIR
surveys a novel idea to count live deer. So what do the harvest
numbers really show? The answer is quite different for the two different
periods before and after the new deer management team.
During the 1980s and 90s, the PGC successfully employed the
deer management philosophy referred to as Maximum Sustained Yield
(MSY). The principle of MSY limits the deer population to optimize
reproduction. The optimum (or maximum) number of fawns for one year
provides the maximum number of antlered bucks for following years.
Like most wildlife managers, the PGC assumed MSY would be about
50 percent of the carrying capacity.
The implementation of MSY was an overwhelming success, as deer
harvests nearly doubled during the 1980s. Deer harvests stabilized
in the 1990s, as both the antlered and antlerless harvests benefited
from the dramatic increases in fawn production, with deer densities
at 50 percent of the carrying capacity a counterintuitive
outcome. Higher deer harvests are required to offset higher reproduction
in order to maintain a stable deer population.
MSY also provided balanced female-to-male ratios and healthy deer
populations. The pre-season population had three females to every
two males, comprised of one legal antlered buck and one fawn buck.
In other words at the start of the season, Pennsylvania hunters
observed one antlered buck per four antlerless deer. The deer herd
was very healthy, with fawn reproduction rates of 30 percent or
greater in 44 of the 67 county management units, and adult female
reproduction of 1.5 fawns per female or greater in 48 of the 67
county management units.
Upon arrival of the new team, the harvest numbers became increasingly
suspect. For some unknown reason, our unhealthy female deer population
became increasingly fertile about two years prior to the arrival
of the new team, providing an abundance of female deer to replenish
their ranks after the new team arrived. Amazingly, 2007/2008 is
the first year the new team allowed the female harvest to fall below
the average female harvest during the 1990s.
Another achievement by the new team was the ability to change the
natural birth ratio. How can Pa. hunters continue to harvest more
females than males given that: (1) males are born in a higher birth
ratio, and (2) females have greater non-hunting mortality?
Remember the promise of twice as many 2.5+ year-old bucks? (a 100
percent increase) After six years of antler restrictions the bean
counters can only show a meager 30 percent increase.
And sadly, most of our older bucks were only spikes or 4-pointers
as yearlings a dilution of the gene pool. A visit to any
taxidermist will confirm our degrading gene pool compared to the
1990s.
One promise the new team was able to deliver on was to change the
age of harvested bucks to younger fawn bucks. The fawn buck harvest
has increased 27 percent.
In summary, deer harvest data is only as good as the source; bad
data results in bad decisions. An independent audit of the deer
harvest numbers is long overdue, or even better, how bout those
deer check stations?
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